We don’t live in a normal world; we live under a power law.
—Peter Thiel
Along with a few other foolish pursuits, I’ve been angel investing for the last few years. I’ve long said it’s the fastest way to incinerate real capital while piling up social capital. My checkbook has not been listening.
I now own a small piece of more than fifty startups. Most will go to zero. One or two might just pay for everything else. That’s how venture capital works, and, as it turns out, it’s how much of life does too.
Per his research:
Almost all US stocks failed to build lasting wealth over the past century…after tracking 29,754 companies from 1926 through 2025.
Just 1,082 of those firms, about 3.7%, created all of the market’s net gains. Every other stock, on average, did no better than owning Treasury bills.
Or, for the more visually inclined:
Jash Dholani made the same point about books.
The closer you pay attention to the natural rhythm of your life, the more you see power laws. Once this oddly-shaped curve makes an appearance one place, you find it everywhere.
The power law of conversations. Most small talk is forgotten by the time you walk out the door. Every so often a stranger at a wedding or a funeral drops a line you’re still thinking about years later.
The power law of dating. Most first dates end with a polite, stilted hug and a mutual, unspoken agreement to never ever subject yourself to this torturous ritual again. You keep going anyway. Then one night you look up and realize the restaurant is stacking chairs around you because you’ve been lost in her eyes all night.
The power law of cold emails. Almost nobody writes back. The one who does might become your biggest client, your cofounder, or your best friend. Because of this, you hit send anyway.
The power law of saying yes. Most invitations lead to crappy wine, stale conversation, and a long, lonely Uber ride home. You go anyway, because the invitation you decline is always the get together where everybody met and sparks actually flew.
The power law of meetings. I’ve sat through thousands that should have been an email. A couple changed the direction of my life, and I very nearly canceled one of them.
The power law of days. Most weekdays simply blend and blur together. Then a random Thursday hands you a cofounder, a confidant, or a crashout.
The power law of relationships. You’ll meet thousands of people. A handful will shape who you become. You won’t know which ones until much, much later on.
The power law of investing. My worst check can only lose what I put in. My best could come back a hundred times. As Jeff Bezos once said, “Given a 10% chance of a 100 times payoff, you should take that bet every time.”
Bessembinder’s answer for stocks is to own the whole market, because nobody can pick the winners in advance.
Unfortunately, life doesn’t come with an index fund. The only person buying shares is you, one yes at a time, and the only way to get exposure is to keep showing up. That means saying yes again and again and again so that your surface area for serendipity catches those outliers that can change the course of your life.
Invest early, invest often, and invest continuously.
Per my about page, White Noise is a work of experimentation. I view it as a sort of thinking aloud, a stress testing of my nascent ideas. Through it, I hope to sharpen my opinions against the whetstone of other people’s feedback, commentary, and input.
If you want to discuss any of the ideas or musings mentioned above or have any books, papers, or links that you think would be interesting to share in a future edition of White Noise, please reach out to me by replying to this email or following me on X.
With sincere gratitude,
Tom
This is so true! I lived my whole life trying to accelerate these discoveries and just generate as much pure luck as possible.